~January 10, 2022~
Related to Math?
In this article, mathematicians used graphs, algorithms, and functions to outline regions entering and exiting COVID-19 infection periods. Using these graphs helped determine when it was stable to lift restrictions. Initially, policymakers looked at stable or insufficient declining infection rates before lifting restrictions. However, a paper on second-surge COVID-19 infections states that policymakers and health officials should instead look for turning points in the data (identify local maxima and minima). In the study, the two mathematicians gathered data from all 50 US states and the District of Columbia for seven months, from January 21, 2020, to July 31, 2020. By using functions to sketch curves of best fits for all areas, they were able to see that 31 states and the District of Columbia were experiencing a second wave at the end of July. Some US states had trough-peak, showing that they are in their first infection surge. Other states had trough-peak-trough, showing that they have ended their infection surge. By gathering all this data and using functions to sketch graphs through a seven-month period, health officials could predict when a state will begin another infection surge or end and decide whether they should lift restrictions.
Anything Thought Provoking?
This article fascinates me because people and health officials can see the number of covid cases, predict what will happen in the future, and decide whether it is logical to lift restrictions. Something that was thought-provoking was the idea that we should instead be focused on turning points (looking for local maxima and minima) in the graphs rather than stable or declining infection rates. We should focus on turning points because it allows people to dictate when a particular area has officially ended its infection surge wave (reached its peak) and see when the number of cases has reached a minimum. Noticing when the number of cases has reached a minimum allows us to decide if it is safe to lift restrictions. If health officials make decisions based on stable or declining infection rates, we can expect to see another surge wave since infection rates have not plateaued at the minimum.
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